Back-to-school spending forecast to reach record highs
Shoppers are forecast to spend a record $43.3 billion on K-12 students this year, up from $39.4 billion in 2025. Meanwhile, back-to-school shopping for college students is expected to reach $103.5 billion, exceeding $100 billion for the first time, according to an annual survey by the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics.In response to price-sensitive consumers’ concerns, retailers have introduced back-to-school deals well before classes begin this fall.
In June, Target debuted back-to-school offers and refreshed more than half of that inventory with new apparel, dorm decor, school supplies and other products. Earlier this month, Kohl’s promoted its own back-to-school discounts, with “thousands of products” priced below $25. This week, Walmart marked down select items to 25 cents and reduced prices on its 14 most popular school supplies to their “lowest prices since 2019.”
So far, retailers’ early sales have attracted consumers’ attention. Over half (54%) of respondents to the NRF’s survey said they bought their school supplies during sales such as Target Circle Deal Days, Walmart Deals and Amazon’s Prime Day.