The Trump administration on Monday began accepting requests for tariff refunds, after the Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s tariff policy earlier this year, but some analysts warned Americans likely won’t see lower costs as a result. Only an importer of record—the entity that officially paid the tariffs—can request refunds, though some legal analysts have criticized the process as only a few businesses publicly committed to sharing the proceeds, and many firms would benefit from the refunds despite asking consumers to pay higher prices brought on by the tariffs.

Consumers exhibited caution with their spending in July. Although there was an increase in sessions for many retailers, this did not translate into higher sales, with order volumes remaining flat. Overall, U.S. retail sales grew modestly by 0.74% month-over-month, indicating that while consumers continue to spend, they are doing so carefully. The July jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics also painted a mixed picture of the U.S. labor market, further highlighting consumer restraint in discretionary spending. Apparel and Outdoor brands outperformed many Home and Specialty retailers, buoyed by the back-to-school season and the Olympics, respectively. Nevertheless, demand appears constrained across verticals. In this challenging environment, refining strategies to enhance customer conversion rates and focus on improving customer lifetime value (LTV) will be crucial.

With back-to-school schedules everywhere in continual flux, this BTS shopping season has gotten as unpredictable as hurricane tracking. While the National Retailer Federation reports a large increase in consumer spending as parents buy pricey new laptops and desks for home schoolrooms, national advertisers are taking a hall pass. Kantar says advertising spending for back-to-school is off 70% so far this year. The best word for consumer sentiment is still confusion. Kantar’s polling finds 13% of consumers are comfortable sending children back to school “as soon as possible,” 14% want to wait more than six months, and 25% fall somewhere in between one and five months. More than half of also say they don’t know.