By 2032, Eli Lilly will constitute a “league of its own” in worldwide pharma sales, according to researcher Evaluate’s Annual World Preview Report, released June 23. Lilly’s expected global sales of $137 billion in 2032 will be almost 60% more than that of the second largest pharma firm, AbbVie, Evaluate reports. The overwhelming success will be driven by Lilly’s weight-loss trio, with Mounjaro at # 1 in sales of all drugs, Zepbound at #3 and Foundayo (its new pill) at #4, according to Evaluate’s forecasts. Mounjaro and Zepbound together will be worth more than $70 billion, making their common ingredient -- tirzepatide -- into “the biggest drug ever," surpassing Pfizer/BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccines, Evaluate said. The three weight loss drugs together “will make up nearly half of total 2032 sales of the top ten best-selling drugs,” per the report.

Brands love the fantasy of the limited edition. A seasonal pack tied to Halloween, a sports final, a pop culture collaboration, or an anniversary gets launched with the quiet hope that shoppers will treat it like a keepsake. Sometimes that happens. Most of the time, especially in fast-moving grocery categories, it does not. In fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), a limited edition usually lives in a very different reality from the one imagined in the boardroom. If units are still sitting on shelf after the event has passed, the package stops signaling novelty and starts signaling age. To a shopper moving quickly through the aisle, that stale seasonal pack can read less like “special” and more like “this has been here a while.” The safer choice becomes the regular version, the one that still feels current, familiar, and easy.

One day three statisticians went hunting in Maine. Out overlooking an open meadow, they spotted a deer, and the first one took a careful shot but missed by a yard to the left. Miraculously the deer never moved, allowing the second to take his shot, this time missing by a yard to the right. The third took his turn to aim and – BINGO! “We got it!” exclaimed the third with high fives all around. The marketing planning process can seem precisely like this, and people remember the misses more than anything. Sales and customer growth forecasting is complicated under the best of circumstances, and when planning for 2021, we’re all in for some difficult challenges. One basic principle of forecasting is to plan for normalcy, but this year was anything but typical, and there is still a great deal of uncertainty ahead. Several years ago, when we had more human interaction with our peers, I remember my colleague Matt Morton referencing the planning process as being “a bit of alchemy,” which stuck with me. I thought that was a great way to put it. Naturally, we’ll have previous results from which to work, but the real skill involves the ability to make sound assumptions for planning purposes. Get more at: https://cohereone.com/planning-in-chaos/?utm_medium=email&_hsmi=99162426&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8Fe-e-x7FfpLs6vHkNUBAT-Qiz-lHoetPkpZ3bUZ_E7KVhQoQauWC908pY6r9_kJQFD3RcOl6hkg75lneVJTRK4snWbCwo_yJaUHmecdx01klgoPY&utm_content=99162426&utm_source=hs_email