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Numbers Driving the Optimism in Trucking, Then and Now
Growth in the U.S. economy boomed in 2018, slowed in 2019, and turned south in 2020 when COVID-19 started to spread widely in March. In 2019, trucks shipped 72.5% of all domestic tonnage, including an increase of 366 million tons over 2018. Also, across the northern and southern borders, trucks moved three-quarters of the value of trade between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. Compared with previous recessions, trucking fared far better than the overall economy as the recession in the first half of 2020 was concentrated in the much less freight intensive, services sector. At the start of 2020, the U.S. remained in the longest economic expansion on record with the unemployment rate at 50-year lows. In the three primary categories of freight—retail, manufacturing, and housing construction—only manufacturing was struggling from an industry-specific recession in 2019. In January, retail sales notched a record high, and construction on new homes surged to its highest level in over a decade, according to the Census Bureau. Even manufacturing showed signs that it bottomed out in 2019, as the Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers Index reported an expanding manufacturing sector in January and February after 5 months of contraction.
Oil Heads for Second Monthly Gain as OPEC Strategy Pays Off
Futures were little changed in New York and are up 4.8 percent this month, after rallying 9.4 percent in September. U.S. crude inventories probably declined for a fifth time in six weeks, according to a Bloomberg survey before government data due Wednesday. Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said last week that he backed prolonging supply curbs, following a similar endorsement by Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier this month. Global benchmark Brent crude this month topped $60 a barrel for the first time since 2015 on hopes the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and partners including Russia will prolong their curbs aimed at eliminating a glut. Prices were also boosted by fighting between Iraqi government troops and Kurdish forces in the oil-rich Kirkuk region. Still, the potential for continued supplies from U.S. shale fields is a concern. Click Read More below for additional information.
