Futures lost 0.9 percent in New York after climbing 4.1 percent in the previous three sessions. Inventories rose by 3.1 million barrels last week, the American Petroleum Institute was said to report. Energy Information Administration data Thursday is forecast to show stockpiles dropped for a third week. Global supply and demand estimates for 2018 indicate that stockpiles may not fall further, potentially capping prices, according to the International Energy Agency. “According to the IEA’s calculation, at the current level of OPEC production there will be no global stock draws next year,” said Olivier Jakob, managing director of consultants Petromatrix GmbH in Zug, Switzerland. “If the IEA is right, then markets will continue to trade in the narrow” price band seen recently. Global oil stockpiles will fall this year by 300,000 barrels a day as stronger demand and output curbs by OPEC and Russia whittle away a surplus, the IEA said Thursday in its monthly report. Still, even if the producers decide to continue with the cuts next year, surging supplies from the U.S. and elsewhere will prevent inventories dropping further. Click Read More below for additional information.

A shortage of truck drivers is a big part of the country’s supply chain problems. The trucking industry is short 80,000 drivers, an all-time high for the industry, according to the American Trucking Associations. The shortage, which existed pre-pandemic but has grown worse since then, comes at a critical time in the retail supply chain cycle, with U.S. ports backlogged just before the start of the holiday shopping season. Truck drivers move 71% of the US economy's goods,. “Since we last released an estimate of the shortage, there has been tremendous pressure on the driver pool,” said Bob Costello, chief economist, ATA. “Increased demand for freight, pandemic-related challenges from early retirements, closed driving schools and DMVs, and other pressures are really pushing up demand for drives and subsequently the shortage." The outlook for the next few years doesn’t offer much hope. Based on driver demographic trends, including gender and age, as well as expected freight growth the shortage could surpass 160,000 in 2030.

The annualized turnover rate at both large and small truckload carriers rose by double digit percentage points in the third quarter as the industry began bouncing back from a COVID-19 induced slump. “After a calamitous second quarter, trucking – along with the rest of the economy – began recovering in the third quarter, leading to a tightening of the driver market,” said American Trucking Associations Chief Economist Bob Costello. “With a more robust freight market, we saw an increase in carriers seeking drivers, which led to increased turnover. Additionally, the driver pool has decreased this year for a host of reasons, including fewer new drivers coming into the industry as truck driver training schools train less drivers due to social distancing requirements.” In the third quarter, the turnover rate at truckload carriers with more than $30 million in annual revenue rose 10 percentage points to 92% on an annualized basis. The rate at smaller truckload carriers rose 14 points to 74%. Despite the increases, the 2020 average turnover rate is still running behind 2019.