For well over a year, virtually all of our economic indicators flashed “recession.” However, it didn’t happen, at least not yet. Now it’s looking more like a “jobless recovery” from an “almost recession.” The stock market is hitting record highs, gold set a new record high, corporate earnings are very good, consumer spending is solid, and inflation is subdued. In this context, the Small Business Optimism Index has managed to break out of its funk, running below 99 from October 2021 to October 2024, then rising to over 105 in December 2024. The current reading of 100.8, while lower than late last year, is above the 51-year average of 98. As good as all that sounds, that’s not the whole story. Hiring remains weak, and labor quality is the top business problem. Unfilled job openings are disappearing, but not because they are filled. Actual and planned capital spending remain weak, hopefully the new depreciation rules and permanent 20% small business deduction will stimulate some investment spending. Owners are optimistic about improving business conditions by year end, hopefully stronger sales and more favorable tax rules. For now, the economy is on a good footing, but small business owners are hoping that their “uncertainties” will be favorably resolved.

National Average Price for Regular Unleaded Current: $3.634; Month Ago: $3.394; Year Ago: $3.621. National Average Price for Diesel Current: $4.057; Month Ago: $4.036; Year Ago: $4.206.

UPS announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Andlauer Healthcare Group Inc. (TSX: AND) (“AHG”), a leading North American supply chain management company headquartered in Canada and offering customized third-party logistics and specialized cold chain transportation solutions for the healthcare sector. Under the terms of the agreement, AHG shareholders will receive CAD $55.00 per share in cash, representing a total purchase price of approximately CAD $2.2 billion (USD $1.6 billion). This transaction will extend the global portfolio of end-to-end cold chain capabilities available to UPS Healthcare customers, who increasingly seek temperature-controlled and precision logistics solutions. “Next-generation treatments are driving more complexity than ever, expanding the needs of healthcare customers and increasing demand for the integrated, end-to-end cold chain solutions UPS Healthcare provides around the world,” said Kate Gutmann, EVP and president of International, Healthcare and Supply Chain Solutions for UPS.