What 2026 holds after containerboard’s historic 10% capacity pullback

Ten percent might not seem like a lot in certain contexts, but it’s notable when describing the loss of North American containerboard production capacity in 2025. On the heels of that extraordinary pullback, analysts project a more positive 2026 for containerboard, although they have different opinions on the likelihood of a bona fide recovery.

Overall, analysts expect containerboard demand at the beginning of 2026 to remain in the depressed state where it ended 2025, with some incremental improvements throughout the year.

Analysts expect the halt to falling demand will translate to fewer production capacity cuts. The “historic” 10% pullback in 2025 resulted in the “largest annual downward adjustment the sector has seen,” according to a Fastmarkets RISI analysis released last year. As such, it would be difficult for the containerboard sector to match that level of single-year loss again in 2026, although a few closures of older, less efficient facilities or production lines are still likely, analysts say.

What 2026 holds after containerboard’s historic 10% capacity pullback | Packaging Dive

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