Smaller retailers face their toughest holiday season in years

The federal government shutdown that started Oct. 1 is just the latest in a host of challenges, along with tariffs, inflation and signs of economic weakness, that are bedeviling businesses as 2025 winds down. This makes smaller retailers — which lack the financial buffer most big chains have — especially vulnerable as the holidays approach.

“Everyone loves shouting about shopping small or local, especially during the holiday season, but this year, small businesses are heading into their busiest period with a level of uncertainty they haven’t faced before,” said Jacob Bennett, co-founder and CEO of Crux Analytics, which works with small businesses and their banks.

Summer ended sluggishly for the sector, according to the Fiserv Small Business Index for September, which leverages transaction data from more than 2 million U.S. small businesses across the country: Adjusted for inflation, retail sales dropped 1.4% year over year.

Foot traffic is solid, but average basket size is down, according to Mike Spriggs, head of consumer insights at Fiserv. “That tells us the American consumer is still engaged — just price-aware and promotion-sensitive,” Spriggs said by email.

Then there is the shutdown, which disrupted the loan program at the Small Business Administration — both access to new loans and management of existing ones. Among other consequences, this could disrupt inventory management, which has already been roiled by tariffs.

Smaller retailers face their toughest holiday season in years | Retail Dive

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