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Walmart, Costco poised to win amid unfavorable retail environment

Moody’s is maintaining a negative outlook for the industry in 2026 as high prices and dwindling consumer demand pressure retailers.

U.S. apparel and footwear retailers are expected to feel pinched throughout the first half of 2026 despite a temporary tariff reduction to 10% on most imported goods, Moody’s said. That’s due to weakened discretionary spending and higher residual costs associated with selling off previously purchased inventory.

Walmart is the biggest winner in the U.S. right now, said Moody’s. The company has benefited from “innovation supporting its value offering and best-in-class convenience,” analysts said, adding that the large-scale chain store has even lured higher-end shoppers looking for a respite amid rising retail prices.

At Costco, most of its EBIT comes from membership fees, which Moody’s said “reduces its exposure to higher product costs.” Meanwhile, Target is working on its operational turnaround and investing in its stores.

Walmart, Costco poised to win amid unfavorable retail environment | Retail Dive

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