USPS-Delivering Peace of Mind Since 1775

Consumer confidence rebounded slightly in July as Americans felt more optimistic about the future even as they continued to worry that tariffs would lead to higher prices. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose by 2.0 points in July to 97.2 from 95.2 in June. The Present Situation Index — based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions — fell 1.5 points to 131.5.  The Expectations Index — based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions — rose 4.5 points to 74.4.  “Consumer confidence has stabilized since May, rebounding from April’s plunge, but remains below last year’s heady levels,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, global indicators at The Conference Board. “In July, pessimism about the future receded somewhat, leading to a slight improvement in overall confidence.”

The postal price increases in the near term have proven to be a failure. The USPS modeling predicted that revenue would increase and demand wouldn't fall. However, the data tells a different story. In 2023, revenue of “marketing mail” decreased by $920 million and volume decreased by 7.7 billion pieces. The USPS produced and relied on an economic model that proved to be wrong. Mail volume fell for “marketing mail” and the result was a loss in top-line revenue and a bottom-line loss of $1.6 billion. These losses prove that the postage increases were counterproductive and need to be rolled back. The USPS is a classic fixed cost business where incremental volume is highly profitable because the increased volume has little incremental cost. The postage increases for marketing mail clearly resulted in the huge volume declines between 2022 and 2023. The losses from volume declines were not made up by the postage increases.

Over the last several years, we’ve seen catalogs come and go. And we’ve seen many retailers jump into the game, spend a LOT of money (we’re talking tens of millions of dollars) and then abandon the model after a couple of seasons. This literally breaks my heart and makes me want to scream! Why does this happen? Here is my very quick opinion. These brands have a combination of the following: 1. A flawed merchandise concept that is not unique, delivered with out-of-date benefits or sent to an audience the brand knows nothing about. 2. Bad math that doesn’t take into account mail efficiencies, an understanding of their own database, mailing to bad names at the wrong time or how the catalog model fits into a cross-channel world. 3. A lack of understanding of how to create a landscape of words and imagery that truly sell off the page and drive activity to either a website or store. learn more at: https://www.jschmid.com/blog/5-reasons-catalogs-work/