Oil prices are likely to rise this year thanks to supply disruptions and an OPEC-led deal to limit production, but doubts over the future of compliance with the multilateral agreement and rising U.S. production could stem the upward momentum, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday. A survey of 31 economists and analysts polled by Reuters showed Brent crude LCOc1 would average nearly $64 a barrel in 2018, versus $63 forecast in the February survey, but below the $67.18 average for the benchmark so far in 2018.

For a generation, the huge, whitewashed storage tanks at America’s largest oil refinery in Port Arthur, Texas, have stored almost nothing but Saudi crude. The plant is owned by Saudi Arabia’s state-run oil company, Aramco, and since it first bought a stake in 1988, the Motiva refinery guaranteed the kingdom a strategic foothold in the world’s largest energy market. The tankers carrying millions of barrels a month of Arab Light crude from Saudi export terminals to Port Arthur were testament to the strength of the energy and political ties binding Riyadh and Washington. All of a sudden, there are very few Saudi ships arriving in Texas. Since July, Aramco has constricted supply, attempting to drain the crude storage tanks at Motiva -- and many others across America -- part of a plan to lift oil prices, even at the cost of sacrificing its once prized U.S. market. Click Read More below for additional information.

Futures in New York rose 2.9 percent on Wednesday. An Energy Information Administration report showed shrinking American petroleum surpluses and the first crude withdrawal from the largest U.S. storage complex in six weeks. The U.S. draw-downs underlined optimism that an OPEC-led effort to curb global supplies will be reinforced later this week when the cartel and allied producers gather in Saudi Arabia. The EIA reported U.S. crude stockpiles dropped 1.07 million barrels last week, while supplies at the Cushing, Oklahoma, pipeline hub dropped by 1.12 million. Gasoline supplies fell 2.97 million barrels and distillate stocks slid 3.11 million barrels to the lowest level since November. Click Read More below for additional information.