The federal government shutdown that started Oct. 1 is just the latest in a host of challenges, along with tariffs, inflation and signs of economic weakness, that are bedeviling businesses as 2025 winds down. This makes smaller retailers — which lack the financial buffer most big chains have — especially vulnerable as the holidays approach. “Everyone loves shouting about shopping small or local, especially during the holiday season, but this year, small businesses are heading into their busiest period with a level of uncertainty they haven’t faced before,” said Jacob Bennett, co-founder and CEO of Crux Analytics, which works with small businesses and their banks. Summer ended sluggishly for the sector, according to the Fiserv Small Business Index for September, which leverages transaction data from more than 2 million U.S. small businesses across the country: Adjusted for inflation, retail sales dropped 1.4% year over year. Foot traffic is solid, but average basket size is down, according to Mike Spriggs, head of consumer insights at Fiserv. “That tells us the American consumer is still engaged — just price-aware and promotion-sensitive,” Spriggs said by email. Then there is the shutdown, which disrupted the loan program at the Small Business Administration — both access to new loans and management of existing ones. Among other consequences, this could disrupt inventory management, which has already been roiled by tariffs.

Come next year things are going to go from bad to worse. Senior marketers know it and are already making contingency plans. Read: rationalizing ad dollars. Less than a third (29%) of the world’s largest advertisers plan to slash ad dollars next year, according to a study of 43 multinational companies from the World Federation of Advertisers (WFA) and Ebiquity. Three quarters of the sample “agree strongly” or “agree” that 2023 budgets are under heavy scrutiny. Marketers are already being required to justify their investments. For many of them, 2023 will feel a lot like a recession. It’s not all doom and gloom. Some of those marketers surveyed (28%) claim they will invest more next year, per the study.

Google said on Monday that it will scrap its years-long efforts to eliminate third-party cookies on Chrome. The search company plans to keep third-party cookies for those who don’t want to disable them, but will roll out a new solution that gives people a choice of how and when to protect their privacy in Chrome. They can adjust that choice at any time. "We're discussing this new path with regulators, and will engage with the industry as we roll this out," Anthony Chavez, vice president of Privacy Sandbox, wrote in a blog post published Monday. Developers will continue to have access to Privacy Sandbox APIs, so they can invest in them to further improve privacy and utility.