Oil in New York rose above $50 a barrel early last week, before slipping as signs of rising global supply eroded optimism that curbs by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners are rebalancing the market. The failure of OPEC’s efforts amid expanding output in Libya and Nigeria and lower compliance by some nations has spurred Saudi Arabia to take more action. Prices “are profiting from Saudi Arabia’s announcement that it will be reducing its oil shipments,” said Eugen Weinberg, head of commodities research at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. “This announcement is remarkable to the extent that domestic demand declines in September, meaning that more crude oil will be available for export if production remains unchanged.” Click Read More below for additional detail.

National Average Price for Regular – Current: $2.589; Month Ago: $2.337; Year Ago: $2.215. National Average Price for Diesel – Current: $2.720; Month Ago: $2.527; Year Ago: $2.358.

For well over a year, virtually all of our economic indicators flashed “recession.” However, it didn’t happen, at least not yet. Now it’s looking more like a “jobless recovery” from an “almost recession.” The stock market is hitting record highs, gold set a new record high, corporate earnings are very good, consumer spending is solid, and inflation is subdued. In this context, the Small Business Optimism Index has managed to break out of its funk, running below 99 from October 2021 to October 2024, then rising to over 105 in December 2024. The current reading of 100.8, while lower than late last year, is above the 51-year average of 98. As good as all that sounds, that’s not the whole story. Hiring remains weak, and labor quality is the top business problem. Unfilled job openings are disappearing, but not because they are filled. Actual and planned capital spending remain weak, hopefully the new depreciation rules and permanent 20% small business deduction will stimulate some investment spending. Owners are optimistic about improving business conditions by year end, hopefully stronger sales and more favorable tax rules. For now, the economy is on a good footing, but small business owners are hoping that their “uncertainties” will be favorably resolved.