Labor talks at U.S. ports on the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico are a looming risk for retailers, manufacturers and other shippers already grappling with longer transit times and higher costs. The International Longshoremen's Association contract covering 45,000 dockworkers at three dozen ports stretching from Maine to Texas expires on Sept. 30. If there is no deal by then, the union could call a strike that would hit during the vital holiday container shipping season and labor-friendly U.S. President Joe Biden's bid for reelection. The ILA on Monday called off this week's planned start of talks with the U.S. Maritime Alliance, citing one member of that employer group's use of automation technology in violation of prior agreements.

According to Bank of America’s 2025 Business Owner Report, many business owners are approaching the next 12 months with cautious optimism, with nearly three out of four expecting revenue increases. But compared to last year, more small business owners expect sales to decrease over the next 12 months, while fewer who run medium-sized firms expect that to occur. With the holidays around the corner, there are crosscurrents for small businesses. On one hand, consumer spending on holiday items was off to a strong start; on the other, tariff-related costs have surged for small businesses. Despite the pressure, inventory payments per small business client were up 0.6% year-over-year in October, though seasonal retail hiring remains below last year’s levels.

Oil prices continued to climb Tuesday amid fighting in Iraq that threatened production from northern Iraq and as the relationship between the United States and Iran risked more strain. Iraqi forces on Monday clashed with fighters from Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdish region in the oil-rich province of Kirkuk, in a continuing standoff over Kurdish independence. The violence followed a referendum late September in which the Kurds voted overwhelmingly in favor of independence, in defiance of the central government in Baghdad and other regional powers. Click Read More below for additional information.