American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index rose 2.1% in June after increasing 1.2% in May. In June, the index equaled 116.5 (2015=100) compared with 114.1 in May. “While the tonnage index increased in both May and June, it remains in recession territory,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “The index continues to fall from a year earlier and is off 1.9% from its recent peak in September 2022. A multitude of factors have caused a recession in freight, including stagnant consumer spending on goods, lower home construction, falling factory output, and shippers consolidating freight into fewer shipments compared with the frenzy during the goods buying spree at the height of the pandemic. However, the magnitude of the year-over-year declines is improving, perhaps pointing to a bottom in the freight market.” Compared with June 2022, the SA index decreased 0.8%, which was the fourth straight year-over-year decrease. In May, the index was down 2.4% from a year earlier.

American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index decreased 2.1% in September after rising 1.7% in August. In September, the index equaled 113.2 (2015=100) compared with 115.6 in August. “After increasing a total of 2.1% in July and August, tonnage fell by that amount in September,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “Freight has been very choppy this year, but despite the latest drop, tonnage is up 1.8% since hitting a low in January. No doubt, the climb up has been slow and difficult as manufacturing activity remains flat, but the trend is up, not down.” August’s increase was revised down slightly from our September 24 press release. Compared with September 2023, the index fell 0.9%, after rising 0.6% in August from a year earlier.

Last week, the International Longshoremen’s Association provided a legally-required 60-day strike notice ahead of the expiration of the East Coast dockworkers’ contract at the end of September. More than 40,000 port workers are pressing for strike action against the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) on October 1 if their demands are not met. A strike by East Coast dockworkers would have a colossal impact not only on the profits of the major maritime shipping companies, but, most significantly, on the entire global capitalist economy. The contract covers 36 ports on the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States, including the port of New York and New Jersey, the second biggest in the country. The Atlantic and Gulf ports handle over 100 million tons of cargo every year from Europe, South America and Asia.