Oil has advanced for the past three months amid optimism that output cuts by Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners are helping to balance the market. Yet U.S. rivals have been expanding their operations, with drillers adding two oil rigs to reach 749 last week, the highest level since late September, according to Baker Hughes. “The OPEC deal will mostly work for non-OPEC,” said Eugen Weinberg, head of commodities research at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. “Even if OPEC delivers the cuts promised, and prices stay high long enough, the main result will be that U.S. shale adds on close to 1 million barrels a day of additional production.” Click Read More below for additional information.

American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index declined 2% in March after increasing 4% in February. In March, the index equaled 113.4 (2015=100) compared with 115.7 in February. “Tonnage in March suggests that truck freight volumes remain lackluster, and it is clear the truck freight recession continued through the first quarter,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “In the first three months of 2024, ATA’s tonnage index contracted 0.8% from the previous quarter and declined 2.4% from a year earlier, highlighting ongoing challenges the industry is navigating.” February’s increase was revised down slightly from our March 19 press release.

American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index decreased 1% in November after increasing 0.8% in October. In November, the index equaled 113.7 (2015=100) compared with 114.9 in October. “We continued to see a choppy 2023 for truck tonnage into November,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “It seems like every time freight improves, it takes a step back the following month. While year-over-year comparisons are improving, unfortunately, the freight market remains in a recession. Looking ahead, with retail inventories falling, we should see less of a headwind for retail freight, but I’m also not expecting a surge in freight levels in the coming months.” October’s gain was revised down slightly from our November 21 press release. Compared with November 2022, the SA index fell 1.2%, which was the ninth straight year-over-year decrease. In October, the index was down 2.4% from a year earlier.