AAA Daily Fuel Gauge Report for Friday, 5/11/18

Ahead of next week's OPEC meeting in Vienna, strategists are closely watching swings in crude oil prices, which are faltering after weeks of gains. Despite political tensions involving oil superpower Saudi Arabia and OPEC's promises to cut production, crudeprices could come down by year-end, one strategist says. Here's why. • "Tensions in Saudi Arabia are still flaring following the actions by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman," Chantico Global CEO Gina Sanchez said Monday on CNBC's "Trading Nation," referring to a vast political shakeup in the kingdom earlier this month that initially boosted oil prices. • It is unlikely, however, that this will be an "actual geopolitical event," Sanchez said, and oil prices should continue settling. Click Read More below for additional information.

Futures added 1.5 percent in New York. China’s crude imports last month jumped to the second-highest on record, customs data show, while U.S. government data on Thursday showed crude inventories fell by 2.75 million barrels last week. OPEC is said to expect a global oil glut will be gone a year from now. President Donald Trump is expected on Friday to disavow a deal with Iran that helped revive its oil exports, while stopping short of abandoning it. Oil has rebounded from the biggest weekly loss since May on signs that output cuts led by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are draining a surplus. OPEC expects the effort to succeed by the end of the third quarter of next year, said people familiar with the group’s internal forecasts. The prediction assumes that production in Libya and Nigeria will remain at current levels and U.S. shale output will expand by no more than 500,000 barrels a day next year, two people familiar with the matter said. Click Read More below for additional information.

The market “looks a lot more bullish than it did three or four months ago,” said James Williams, president of London, Arkansas-based energy researcher WTRG Economics. The stockpile declines aren’t surprising since “refinery utilization is coming down this time of year because it’s turnaround season,” he said. Nonetheless, he predicted prices will rally again Wednesday if the government confirms the drops. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is expected to extend supply cuts beyond their March expiration date, which has supported oil above the key $50-a-barrel psychological threshold. In addition, oil demand is proving more resilient than some expected, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Energy and Industry Khalid Al-Falih said in Riyadh. Stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for New York-traded futures contracts, probably declined by 500,000 barrels, according to a separate forecast compiled by Bloomberg. A Bloomberg survey estimated that U.S crude stockpiles slid by 3 million barrels last week, while gasoline stockpiles probably rose by 1.7 million barrels. The API report also showed crude stockpiles rose by 519,000 barrels, while Cushing supplies fell by 55,000 barrels last week. A draw at Cushing would be the first since August if the Energy Information Administration confirms it in its data release on Wednesday. Click Read More below for additional information.