Corrugated comeback? Fiber’s yearslong slide could be easing

Forrest Gump famously referenced life’s uncertainty with an analogy to a box of chocolates. A similar comparison could be made now for containerboard and box markets: “You never know what you’re gonna get.” 

A sustained down cycle for fiber markets could soon end, in part due to this year’s uncommonly large containerboard capacity reductions and a milder-than-feared tariff environment, analysts cautiously suggest.

“Time will tell, but this complexion of results suggests that we are approaching an inflection (hopefully positive) based on our experience,” said George Staphos, BofA Securities research analyst.

The capacity reductions could help to rebalance supply and demand, correcting a yearslong oversupply that has plagued both North American and global markets. Yet improvements are not expected to be robust or materialize quickly, analysts say.

RaboResearch expects containerboard demand to experience a “modest” recovery, with a 0.53% compound annual growth rate through the second quarter of 2027.

Corrugated comeback? Fiber’s yearslong slide could be easing | Packaging Dive

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